Oh What a Circus!
One of the little noticed and earliest casualties of the recent speculation about an election was the Association of Circus Proprietors. My colleague Peter Luff had planned to hold a reception in their honour in Parliament on 5th November, but e-mailed at the end of September to say that the event had been cancelled because of election fever. I, of course, held my nerve, and continued to organise my Archive Summit for the end of October. Since then of course, there have been many other casualties, ending with Gordon Brown’s reputation.
There are so many things that can and will be said about Gordon Brown’s extraordinary decision to prepare the country for an election and then pull back. I will try in this post to make a few pithy points.
First, and most obviously, this will have caused Gordon Brown immense damage. Those that say that this is just a Westminster village issue are wrong. The public were more than aware that an election was looming, and more than aware that it was Gordon Brown and his team that were driving it. Now he has pulled back, they will make their judgement. The last hundred days, carefully crafting an image of a man that can control events and handle a crisis, have been for naught. The public have seen Gordon Brown bottle it, in the most spectacular and public fashion. There will be a lot of Blairites quietly muttering “this is what we put up with for a decade”. A wry smile may even have played across Tony’s face. A guffaw will have emerged from Cherie.
Secondly, this was David Cameron’s victory. Brown and Cameron went eye ball to eye ball, and Brown blinked. Like the bully who asks you to “come outside if you think you’re hard enough” and then ends up getting chinned, the mystique has been lost. Not that he ever did, but Cameron has no need to fear Brown ever again. It will fundamentally and permanently change the dynamics of the contest.
Thirdly, Brown has inadvertantly taught the Conservatives a lesson. Everyone, media included, thinks our conference in Blackpool was a huge success. It was. David Cameron reminded the party why they elected him as leader. Indeed, he performed the same feat as he did two years ago in the same hall, using a speech to come from nowhere to pole position. But the leadership was also reminded what a force the Conservative party can be when it is wooed. The inheritance tax cut has proved hugely popular, proving that old and new can co-exist. And finally, all of us were reminded of how powerful we can be when we are united and energised. I hope the only bottling we do from now on is bottling that Blackpool feeling and taking it back to Westminster.
Finally, there is a lesson for the country. Our ancient, creaking constitution, so revered by us all, allowed Brown to play politics with the election. There is not one single sensible argument against fixed term parliaments, unless you are a sitting PM wanting to sneak an election. I hope our new politics extends to making this very sensible reform, and many others that are long overdue.
Will said on October 7th, 2007 at 8:40 pm:
“Our ancient, creaking constitution, so revered by us all, allowed Brown to play politics with the election.”
Looking forward to seeing the Conservative manifesto for the next election (whenever it is) detailing exactly how you’d solve the problem of our “constitution”. Actually having a constitution might be a good start… Or will you be too busy shuffling money to give tax breaks to middle England?
canvas said on October 7th, 2007 at 9:51 pm:
I agree that Gordon Brown has lost the plot. Maybe there will be a Labour leadership contest now - Miliband? Johnson? Anyone but Brown!
David Cameron is brilliant. He’s sensible and reasonable. I’ve never voted Tory in my life - but as long as Cameron is leader he has my vote (whenever the next general election might be!)
Glenlivet Guy said on October 7th, 2007 at 11:55 pm:
Excellent summary of Brown/Balls cockup but it is vital the Conservative party never ever again shows disunity , and that applies to the grandees, and to The Barclay Brothers who must tell the likes of a particular columnist that “you dont bite the hand of those who feed you”
Please dont talk about millions or billions, it means nothing to the average voter, talk about what Brown’s borrowing on and off UK balance sheet is per family. Let the voters know what liabilities have been stashed up for the next generation to pay off in pensions for the 700,000 public sector jobs added to UK taxpayers over the last 10 years. Cof E misrepresenting tonight they wouldnt jeopodise the economy when relating to IHT reduction….annual amount given away assuming even no income from non doms is less than a tenth of what the government is likely to borrow this year just to pay public sector wages and pensions etc.Ensure all front bench spokesmen understand the scale of Brown’s liabilities.
Praguetory said on October 8th, 2007 at 7:22 am:
Certainly agree with the lessons you think the party has drawn from Blackpool, but it’s even more of a challenge to remain united away from conference.
Can’t agree re fixed terms. As with loans for lordships it’s Labour that abused this feature of this system. Why should the whole system be changed due to their low standards? Here in Czech we had a election result that was a dead heat. Until another election is called the legislative programme is in paralysis - fixed term Parliaments could be a curse.