It won’t be Huckabee, and it won’t be Obama
OK, so the Iowa caucus has delivered an exciting result, not what we were expecting at all. It will certainly galvanise the presidential race. But seasoned observers know that Iowa is like a British by-election - the Lib Dems always win, but they never get to form the Government.
Huckabee won Iowa for two reasons. First, Iowa has a huge number of evangelical Christians registered as republicans (60%). Strip them out and the result reads: Romney 34%; McCain 18%; Huckabbe 14%. Second, Huckabbe got the best attack line in the campaign in the last two days - “Americans want to vote for someone who looks like the guy they work with, not the guy who fired them”. Brilliant. Oh, and third, the reason the attack line was amde on Romney is because he is the guy to beat.
Romney will win the Republican nomination. He is well-funded; he has a track record of achievement, both as a Governor and a businessman; and although he is a Mormon, that negative is not as negative as the other guys’ negatives which are in no particular order age, a belief in creationism; character; and pointlessness.
So Romney will win and fight Clinton. Obama has pulled off a stunning - and in every sense of the word, historic, victory. But he does not have the experience or the credibility to overhaul Clinton in every state that counts in the next few weeks. I do think Obama has broken the mould, and I certainly think he could be President one day, but not yet.
So the mortgage is being bet as follows: Romney v Clinton, Romney to win.
Kevin Davis said on January 4th, 2008 at 6:16 pm:
Wow, Romney and interesting call!
I still think it will become an all New York final but it will be close with Romney.
Votedave said on January 4th, 2008 at 6:17 pm:
Hmm, interesting thoughts there Ed. Iowa is only one state.
You’re not one to count their chickens before their hatched, then.
canvas said on January 4th, 2008 at 6:45 pm:
Ed, The people in Iowa decided that change and hope are more important than ‘experience’. Let’s face it - it’s the ‘experienced’ politicians who’ve got us into this big mess that we’re in today.
Barack Obama’s message of hope resonates with the people - change is coming. I am sure the same argument applies to David Cameron. DC is the UK version of Barack Obama.
As for the Democrats - I really think the next President will be a Democrat. I would be happy with a ticket perming two from the three in any order (Obama, Clinton, Edwards). But my preference is Barack Obama.
None of the Republicans are inspiring. Just like the Labour Party they are tired and exhausted.
Tizzy said on January 5th, 2008 at 12:35 am:
What justification do you have for stripping out the fundamentalist Christians from Iowa? They’re all over the US (OK, maybe not so many in Frisco) and the result stands. The way Iowa votes is screwy, anyway, and they are a bit up their own rear with their self-importance. No wonder the state throws up weird results.
The main runners for the Republicans need to sort themselves out and stop trying to be the new Reagan. If Bloomberg stands as an Independent it might become a no horse race for them, and hand the White House to the Dem’s.
Ultimately, I think Hillary’s campaign is too strong and she’ll be in.
Ed, how about making it interesting and we’ll have a bet on whether Hillary or Romney makes it and swap jobs for the day if I win? You win, I’ll make a contribution to one of your local charities.
I’ll await your response…
Sue said on January 5th, 2008 at 11:41 pm:
Ed said - “Romney will win the Republican nomination. He is well-funded; he has a track record of achievement, both as a Governor and a businessman; and although he is a Mormon, that negative is not as negative as the other guys’ negatives which are in no particular order age, a belief in creationism; character; and pointlessness.”
Ed, I’m curious as to why you think that Romney’s beliefs won’t stand against him, especially as you seem to believe (sorry
) that because the other guys believe in creationism that this will go against them. Do you know anything about the Mormons? Because if you did, I think you’d have to swallow your words 
Speaking in very general terms here - America is the land of the Born Again Christian, and they will not vote for a Mormon, even though the Mormons try to pass themselves off as Christian - they are most definitely not. They worship Satan (though they wouldn’t admit to that, but basically they worship the “god of this world” which, as most Christians would tell you, is Satan). They believe that when they die they will eventually create their own world which they will rule over. And this is who you think is a suitable candidate to be President of the most powerful country in the world? Well, pardon me, but I think I’ll book my ticket to New Zealand if he becomes President. You do not know what you are dealing with when you take on a Mormon. And, yes, I’m speaking from personal experience (unfortunately).
Have you read the Book of Mormon or the Doctrine and Covenants? If you haven’t, I highly recommend it, and you might then change your opinion about Mr Romney.
canvas said on January 5th, 2008 at 11:53 pm:
Ed, have you changed your opinion? Olive branch reaching out…grab it.
NH is going WILD for Obama. Even John Redwood (!! I am NOT a fan of John Redwood!!) is enthusing over Obama.
can’t you feel it in the air?? change is coming.
The world wants Obama!
Praguetory said on January 6th, 2008 at 10:24 pm:
Romney is getting killed by his own attack ads which are running messages he can’t even defend himself. His campaign seems to be in freefall.
Ian said on January 7th, 2008 at 12:57 am:
What bollocks! It’s Obama for President - and I’m a Tory voter!!
jean shaw said on January 7th, 2008 at 8:18 am:
Clinton’s campaign is beginning to implode . As long as she was in the lead she played it nice and cool but now the nasty side is coming out and unfortunately it is a side which does her no credit.
calais said on January 7th, 2008 at 10:15 am:
er, this prediction is looking about as viable as gordos last relaunch.
Victor, NW Kent said on January 7th, 2008 at 12:56 pm:
I just filled in an interactive questionnaire only to discover that I, a life-long Conservative, would be a Democrat voter in the USA. Of the Democrat candidates I find that I agreed most with Barack Obama - about 86% worth. I agree least with Mrs. Cinton but even there I had more common ground than with any Republican.
I see it as a good thing for America and the world if Obama were to be elected. The United States under Bush has moved far from the humanitarian norms of the rest of the Western world.
So, I would hate it if your prophecy came true.
gervaise said on January 7th, 2008 at 1:10 pm:
even if you’re right about the final contest, you’re wrong about the winner. it’s a democrat, any democrat, this time, for sure.
canvas said on January 7th, 2008 at 9:21 pm:
Ed, it’s not too late to change your mind!
Obama for WORLD president?!
Obama is a genius.
:) Ed, come on - in the words of your mate Kylie - GET ON BOARD!
PS> Victor - you’re right, the modern Conservative Party has more in common with the Democrats than those uninspiring Republicans. When I saw Romney speak in the ABC Facebook debate I felt slightly ill and panicky…
Tizzy said on January 8th, 2008 at 12:26 am:
DID YOU SEE HILL’S CRYING??!!??!!
canvas said on January 8th, 2008 at 7:53 am:
I know. Hillary did a ‘Heather McCartney’! boohoo
crocodile tears…
but I still like her…
Obama to win!