Lessons of New Hampshire
Well, first of all, listen to your Uncle Ed. All those who posted saying “get with Obama” should realise that Hillary is a phenomenal campaigning machine. Don’t get me wrong, I like Obama, I am just saying that in all likelihood Hillary will beat him. Anyway, we’ll see what happens in Michigan.
Also, on Romney, again, McCain trounced Bush in New Hampshire, and then look what happened, so McCain’s victory is not as significant as it looks. Romney is much better funded and better placed, though it will be interesting to see if Giuliani’s strategy works.
So, I hold to my earlier prediction.
Other lessons…
Well, turnout is significantly up, thus proving another theory of mine, which is that voters vote when politics is interesting and don’t when it isn’t. And in fact there is nothing more boring than seeing politicians emoting about how they will increase the vote and get people more “engaged” in politics. Turnout wil be up at the next British election because Cameron vs Brown is the first interesting contest we have had for 15 years.
Young people are also voting, also proving the same point. Give young people something interesting to vote for - in this case a crowded field, no clear leader, a woman candidate and a black candidate with a real chance of winning for the first time in presidential politics, and guess what, the young come out to vote as well.
Finally, a theory put forward by Frank Luntz this morning, that negativity isn’t working. I am not sure if that is right - he is using it to explain why Romney isn’t doing better. But certainly the positive candidates are having a very good showing at the moment. If it is true that voters want positive and not negative that would be fantastic news.
canvas said on January 9th, 2008 at 6:04 pm:
Dear Uncle Ed,
The contest is wide open now - so feel free to change your prediction at any time!
Obama really is our brightest hope for the future. I hope he can do it. Hillary is sooo ruthless. But I’m not giving up on Obama - I think he can still do it.
Romney is creepy. I fear for the world if that man becomes president (very little chance of that happening though - the next president will be a Democrat).
Will Bloomberg enter the contest? How will he do?
I just want OBAMA to rule the world!
Cameron vs Brown? By the time the next general election rolls around in the UK it could be David Cameron vs David Miliband? Brown will get ousted by his own party!
I’ve fallen out of love with David Cameron ever since he displayed such bad manners with treatment of his Webcameron forum community. DC shut down the forum and hung us out to dry!
Cameron should have said “The forum is closing down, good-bye and thank you for your participation - and for all your contributions to my forum over the last year and a half.”
But Cameron didn’t do this - he displayed an arrogant disregard for his Webcameron internet community. He just shut down the site, no warning, no message… This reflects badly on DC. Perhaps DC will treat the electorate in the same manner?
Webcameron sucks now. It merged with conservatives.com and it’s corporate and boring - with no forum. DC made the highest level of an internet faux pas … boo! shame on him.
Votedave said on January 9th, 2008 at 6:21 pm:
Well, first of all, listen to your Uncle Ed.
That was funny.
Anything could happen. I won’t be predicting anything - not yet, anyway.
Sue said on January 9th, 2008 at 6:49 pm:
I’m just glad Romney did badly last night - I’m hoping the trend will continue! The American electorate are hopefully taking on board that to have a Mormon President is not a good idea.
As for Hillary, I was listening to Up All Night on 5Live early this morning, and they were commenting on Hillary’s little blub, and how it brought out the older voters. The nice weather also contributed to the high vote apparently, and the elderly vote, cos, let’s face it, if it’s icy and freezing, a Primary is just not worth the effort when you’re old. So, Mrs Clinton gets a wobble in her voice, a tear in her eye, and tries to present herself as vulnerable, and suddenly she’s winning New Hampshire when Obama was the sure thing. It would be interesting to have a parallel vote on an icy, freezing cold day, and see if Hillary still would have pulled it off - I think not! I found it a little condescending for the commentators on 5Live to say that Hillary’s tears gave her the woman’s vote - not if I were an American it wouldn’t
I can’t wait to see how Guilliani does in New York
Ed - any thoughts?
(oh, btw, it’s great to see that you do comment on here, but I guess we have to make it radical, subversive, or, at the very least, interesting, for you to comment to us…oh well, it’ll give us all a goal to work towards!!)
Tizzy said on January 11th, 2008 at 12:45 am:
Still going with Mitt, eh? I take it you’re up for the bet from Auntie Tiz.
How much of his personal fortune will he be prepared to put in to continue getting silver? He’s been forced to concentrate on his home state of Michigan and stop funding expensive TV ads in S Carolina and Florida - not a positive signal.
I agree, the different strategies are quite fascinating, and the winner’s will probably be a blueprint for the future. But it’s far too early to be learning lessons from the quirky voting of Iowa and one other tiny state.