Ed Vaizey

Political predictions are not my strong point.  You will recall I predicted Romney vs Clinton in the Presidential election, and until recently I believed McCain would win against Obama.  In 1989 I refused a job with Central Office’s political unit because I believed Labour posed no threat.  I did manage to call Henley right, which is not as silly as it sounds as many on our side thought there might be a photo finish with the Libs.

So I hesitate to make a prediction about the impact of Glasgow East.  I thought Labour would win, just, and that would be enough.  My friends in the SNP kept telling me they were going to win, but I thought this was them being bombastic.  I thought if Labour lost Glasgow East it would be curtains for Brown.  Now they have.  Four things can save him - the recess, obviously, will stop MPs gathering and going into meltdown; changing leaders is difficult, and shrewder Labour MPs realise that would begin rather than end their problems; some MPs are resigned to their fate, feeling they have had a decade in politics they hadn’t expected to have and now they can do something else; and finally, of course, politics can change very quickly.

So my prediction - Brown will hold on…