Glasgow East
Political predictions are not my strong point. You will recall I predicted Romney vs Clinton in the Presidential election, and until recently I believed McCain would win against Obama. In 1989 I refused a job with Central Office’s political unit because I believed Labour posed no threat. I did manage to call Henley right, which is not as silly as it sounds as many on our side thought there might be a photo finish with the Libs.
So I hesitate to make a prediction about the impact of Glasgow East. I thought Labour would win, just, and that would be enough. My friends in the SNP kept telling me they were going to win, but I thought this was them being bombastic. I thought if Labour lost Glasgow East it would be curtains for Brown. Now they have. Four things can save him - the recess, obviously, will stop MPs gathering and going into meltdown; changing leaders is difficult, and shrewder Labour MPs realise that would begin rather than end their problems; some MPs are resigned to their fate, feeling they have had a decade in politics they hadn’t expected to have and now they can do something else; and finally, of course, politics can change very quickly.
So my prediction - Brown will hold on…
canvas said on July 25th, 2008 at 11:41 am:
Welcome back, Uncle Ed. Don’t worry about your dodgy predictions. Politicians should always listen to the people. If you had listened closely at the time then you would have ‘got it’. LoL
If Gordon Brown steps down there will have to be a general election. Too many Labour MPs are worried about losing their seats - it won’t happen. Labour will limp on for another 18 months.
Obama is an amazing person. What other person, let alone a politician, can draw a crowd like Obama? His message obviously resonates across the world. Obama’s language and his tone are spot on.
Barack Obama is in a great position to kick in the door - and I can’t wait until that happens. I’ve always believed the world will be a better place if Obama becomes President. I think that will happen.
I do hope that David Cameron watches Obama closely and I hope DC learns from him. If DC is genuine and promotes fairness then this could be an exciting time for politics. I am still deeply concerned about the Conservative Party. I hope the Tories have learned from their mistakes of the past.
Votedave said on July 25th, 2008 at 8:45 pm:
This is a truly cataclysmic result for Labour. Glasgow East was the party’s 25th safest seat out of their 356 seats.
I can’t see Gordon Brown being replaced any time soon - none of the young guns would want to risk cutting their career short. They will wait until after the general election to attempt to stage a comeback.
Votedave said on August 1st, 2008 at 7:44 pm:
A new YouGov poll, putting the Conservatives ahead 47%-25% suggests that no other Labour leader would do much better than Gordon Brown - in fact most of them would do even worse. Tony Blair is actually the front-runner!
canvas said on August 5th, 2008 at 10:33 am:
Hi Votedave, I’m not sure about that. I think David Miliband and Alan Johnson could possibly turn things around. Even if it meant that Labour didn’t lose as hugely as it would with Gordon Brown as PM. However, Labour would have to call a general election within a few months of changing leader - and changing the ‘leader’ (if you can call Brown that) won’t be easy.
All I can say to David Cameron is ‘careful what you wish for!’. Perhaps DC would have been wiser to let Gordon Brown carry on for another year instead of highlighting Brown’s complete failure in such a big way.
Votedave said on August 7th, 2008 at 7:37 pm:
Maybe you’re right canvas. But I’m still not convinced changing a party leader is the solution to a party’s problems - the Conservatives and LibDems have been through the mill with that sort of thing (Duncan Smith, Campbell, Kennedy) and it hasn’t got them very far. Labour won’t stay in power forever no matter who leads them I’m sure.